kalshiWho will win the next presidential election?0.02
polymarketClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?0.17
kalshiWill Zohran Mamdani be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?0.00
polymarketWill Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.00
kalshiWill Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.03
polymarketWill Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?0.28
kalshiWill Spencer Pratt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.01
polymarketNational Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils1.00
kalshiWill Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?0.15
polymarketDetroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners0.05
kalshiWill Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?0.04
polymarketSan Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks0.01
kalshiWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?0.17
polymarketSt. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees0.99
kalshiWill Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.01
polymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?0.14
polymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?0.34
polymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?0.02
polymarketWill Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.00
polymarketWill Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?0.00
polymarketLos Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky0.00
polymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?0.83
polymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.45
polymarketDetroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.50.10
polymarketWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-05?0.00
polymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?0.15
polymarketWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?0.55
polymarketWill Inter Miami CF win on 2026-08-05?1.00
polymarketWill Nashville SC win on 2026-08-05?0.00
polymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.01
polymarketWill América de Cali win on 2026-08-05?1.00
polymarketWill Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.00
polymarketWill Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-05?1.00

Research terminal · Beta

Find the edge the market
hasn’t priced yet.

Priorbook is a fundamentals-based research terminal for serious prediction-market traders — fusing live prices from Kalshi and Polymarket with polling, base rates, news and smart-money flow into one auditable fair-value estimate.

See live marketsRequest access

Arbitrage scanners are collapsing. The research layer is wide open.

Cross-venue arbitrage economics are compressing toward a few cents per contract — funding both venue rails, fees, and withdrawal latency eat the spread that remains. What’s not being commoditized is a quant-grade fundamentals layer: fair value blended from real signals that a research desk actually wants to sit on, not another bot racing the same shrinking edge.

How the model works

Five layers, one consensus number, every input auditable. Weights are per-market-class and will be fully configurable — today they’re the starting defaults.

30%

Live cross-venue price

Kalshi, Polymarket & adjacents, sub-second

22%

Polling & expert forecasts

Public polling, forecaster panels

20%

Historical base rates

Outcome distributions since 2014

18%

News & NLP sentiment

Realtime ingest, entity-linked events

10%

Wallet / smart-money flow

Opt-in wallet graph, fund-grade sizing

The composite fair-value model itself is next on the roadmap — today’s terminal shows live venue prices only; it doesn’t yet compute a blended fair value. See the full methodology and a worked example.

Who it’s for

Crypto-native funds

$10M–$500M AUM

One composite fair-value view across Kalshi and Polymarket, with a wallet graph your risk desk can audit before sizing.

Prop shops

5–20 seat quant desks

A fundamentals-based fair-value estimator that plugs into your existing signal stack, with a raw time series export.

High-volume retail

Operator-level traders

The same composite model the pros use — heat maps and threshold alerts, without needing your own data pipeline.

Be in the first cohort.

Priorbook is invite-only while we scale the data plane. Leave your email and a short note about your book — desk size, venues you trade, and what you’d want to backtest first.

Prefer email? Reach us at edgemarkhq@gmail.com